PROPHET 9
MK

Merrill Kelly

P · Bats R · Age 37 · Arizona · as of June 11, 2026
Underlying
25
Surface
21
▲ Emerging Breakout candidate · gap +4
Engine: Consensus · carries across views · refreshed nightly

Expected vs. actual — all targets

Viewing: Consensus
K · full season—
125now 37
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
W · full season—
12now 5
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
QS · full season—
10now 4
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
ER · full season—
75now 37
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
BB · full season—
57now 25
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
HRA · full season—
22now —
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
SV · full season—
0now 0
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
HLD · full season—
0now 0
——80%
No divergence — holding established pace
Where the engines disagree

At season grain the engines currently read him identically; tonight's game-level panel below carries their live disagreement, target by target.

Tonight, game by gameTonight at Miami · 7:00 PM ET · projected lineup
TargetExpected80% intervalProbabilitiesPSCF
Strikeouts4.881.009.00P(K≥6) 38% · P(K≥8) 16%4.645.12
Quality start0.340.001.00P(QS) 34%0.300.38
Win0.390.001.00P(W) 39%0.380.41
Innings6.14.08.0P(6+ IP) 55%5.96.3
Earned runs3.020.007.00—3.192.86
Walks2.190.005.00—2.382.00
Hits allowed5.792.0010.00—6.195.39
HR allowed0.930.002.00—1.020.83
Per-game posteriors from the nightly inference run — expectations with calibrated 80% intervals; engine columns carry each reader's own game-level posterior.